Could the Trump effect weigh the French market?

And if the fate of your real estate projects depended … on Donald Trump? From his thunderous return to the White House, the world economic tremors have been connected. And France, far from being spared, is already starting to feel the effects. Increase of the UVAIS, tensions on the markets, return of inflation: the mortgage is entering a new era and could be much less favorable than hoped.

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An increase in rates that decrease badly

The month of April marks a turning point for borrowers. Several banks have discreetly noticed their mortgage rates, putting an end to a reduction dynamic that lasted for over a year. This climb is not trivial: it occurs at the precise time when the 10 -year state loan rate has risen to 3.50 %, a threshold that alarms brokers. The consequence is immediate on the market: less advantageous financing conditions, which brutally slow down the momentum of many buyers.

And if this context is already sufficient to cool intentions, it is mainly in a wider geopolitical tension. Since this increase is not purely technical: it also finds its origin in the awakening of uncertainty caused by American politics. An instability that increases world rates, banks that try to cover their risks in an environment have become much more volatile.

When Washington Trema Paris

From his re -Electoral, Donald Trump has multiplied the division decisions, starting from a spectacular increase in customs duties. Result: an early inflation outbreak on a global scale and a capital escape for safer activities. For markets, the message is clear: the trust is fragile. And France, like other European countries, pays the high price of this protectionist policy that has already reconstructed the cards in 2018, but on another staircase.

What worries observers is not only the brutality of American decisions, but their domino effect. Because if investors abandon Europe for the benefit of the United States, the financing conditions in the Old Continent are treated. And for the key, it is the rates of real estate credits that fly away, undermining the purchase of a main residence for thousands of families. An even more worrying dynamic since the ECB is looking for in parallel to calm the game with a drop in his driving rates.

The silent weight of the insurance

In addition to the increase in rates, another component is discreetly weighs the overall cost of a loan: loan insurance. And again there, international turbulence could have an unexpected effect. The increase in risk perceived by insurers may have a Impact on borrowing insurancein particular on the profiles deemed less attractive or by presenting a medical history. Result: even with a good credit rate, the borrowers could see their monthly payment.

In this context, the choice of a good loan insurance becomes more strategic than ever. Brokers Marciano: the cost difference between two contracts can represent several thousand euros. And with less inclined banks to make commercial gestures, the insurance leverage becomes one of the few negotiation tools available for mutuals. An accentuated trend, especially for young workers and buyers for the first time.

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Towards an amplified real estate crisis?

Alert signals are increasing. If rates continue their rise, they are all the dynamics of the market that could change. Because with the degraded financing conditions, access to the property is limited. Less requests, more goods on the market, sales times that lie down … this is how we could accentuate the housing crisis that some already thought behind us. And in this game, they are the tense areas that risk the largest.

The Trump effect, far from anecdotal, acts as a catalyst for instability. A global economy under tension, volatile markets, rates that climb: the perfect recipe for weakening a still convalescent real estate sector. And if Europe does not react quickly, the spiral could start faster than you think. It is not a simple correction: it could be a new cycle that starts.

And you, do you think political decisions in the United States can really have an impact on your mortgage? Should we act quickly or wait for stabilization? Tell us in the comments, share this article with your loved ones and gives life to the debate.